# QNT 275TWeek3

What is the probability that the wine cooler would be greater than 60 degrees?
What is the probability that the wine cooler would be less than 45 degrees?

Based on the probabilities for the ratings of 4 and 5, which age/gender demographic would be the best target audience for the new concept?
Women age 21-24
Women age 25-34
Men age 25-34
Men age 21-24

What is the probability that at least 5 six packs will be bought in a month?
What is the probability that exactly 3 six packs will be bought in a month?
What is the probability that between 4 and 8 six packs will be bought in a month?
RESULTS OF CONCEPT RATING FOR NEW WINE COOLER
Rating of the appeal of the phrase as it relates to the new wine cooler Total Sample Gender Age
Male Female 21 – 24 25 -34 35-49
Extremely appealing (5) 151 68 83 48 63 40
Somewhat appealing (4) 91 51 40 36 32 23
Neither appealing nor not appealing (3) 36 21 15 9 16 11
Somewhat unappealing (2) 13 7 6 4 6 3
Not at all appealing (1) 9 3 6 4 3 2

1. Based on the following, estimate the probability that a randomly selected 21- to 49-year-old consumer:
Would give the phrase a rating of 5
Would give the phrase a rating of 3 or higher
Is in the 21 to 24 age group
Is a male who gives the phrase a rating of 4
Is a 35- to 49-year-old who gives the phrase a rating of 1
QUANTITY PURCHASED PER PERSON IN ONE MONTH
# of six packs purchased # people who purchased this amount Probability x*P(x) P(x) * (x – mean)^2
0 7 0.082 0.000 1.586
1 6 0.071 0.071 0.810
2 6 0.071 0.141 0.403
3 13 0.153 0.459 0.295
4 14 0.165 0.659 0.025
5 12 0.141 0.706 0.053
6 10 0.118 0.706 0.306
7 5 0.059 0.412 0.401
8 5 0.059 0.471 0.767
9 5 0.059 0.529 1.251
10 2 0.024 0.235 0.741
Calculate the mean and the standard deviation of your probability distribution.
Calculate the probability that exactly 3 six packs will be bought in a month.
Calculate the probability that between 4 and 8 six packs will be bought in a month.
Calculate the probability that at least 5 six packs will be bought in a month.
Calculate the probability that no more than 5 six packs will be bought in a month.
Week 4
You manage Human Relations for your company. One of your sales managers has retired, leaving an opening. You are considering two different employees for the position. Both are highly qualified, so you have decided to evaluate their sales performance for the past year.
Using the Week 4 Data Set, create and calculate the following in Excel®:
1. Determine the range of values in which you would expect to find the average weekly sales for the entire sales force in your company 90% of the time, and calculate the following:
o The impact of increasing the confidence level to 95%
o The impact of increasing the sample size to 150, assuming the same mean and standard deviation, but allowing the confidence level to remain at 90%
2. Based on the calculated confidence interval for weekly sales on the sample of 50 reps at a 90% confidence level, calculate the following:
o Both reps’ average weekly performance, highlighting if it is greater than the population mean
3. In order to decide who to promote, determine whether there is a statistically different average weekly sales between Sales Rep A and Sales Rep B by doing the following:
o Create null and alternative hypothesis statements that would allow you to determine whether their sales performance is statistically different or not.
o Use a significance level of .05 to conduct a t-test of independent samples to compare the average weekly sales of the two candidates.
o Calculate the p-value.
4. Considering the individual you did not promote, do the following:
o Determine whether this person’s average weekly sales are greater than the average weekly sales for the 50 sales reps whose data you used to develop confidence intervals.
o Create null and alternative hypothesis statements that would allow you to determine whether this person’s weekly average sales are greater than the sample of Sales Reps.
o Use a significance level of .05 to conduct a t-test of independent samples to compare the average weekly sales of both.
o Calculate the p-value.

Week 5

1. Conduct a goodness of fit analysis which assesses orders of a specific item and items you received by size, and do the following:
o Conduct a hypothesis test with the objective of determining if there is a difference between what you ordered and what you received at the .05 level of significance.
o Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Generate a scatter plot, the correlation coefficient, and the linear equation evaluating whether a relationship exists between the number of times a customer visited the store in the past 6 months and the total amount of money the customer spent, and do the following:
o Set up a hypothesis test to evaluate the strength of the relationship between the two variables.
o Use a level of significance of .05.
3. Use the regression line formula to forecast how much a customer might spend on merchandise if that customer visited the store 13 times in a 6-month period.
4. Use the average monthly sales of 2014 (\$1,310) as your base to do the following:
o Calculate indices for each month for the next two years.
o Graph a time series plot.